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Do You Believe In Santa? Read More About The January Effect
As long as the shop does, it will be a happy Christmas! Santa Claus Rally
We are entering that magical time of year. No, I’m not talking about the holiday season of giving and happiness. I’m talking about that time of the year when we get the Santa Claus Rally and January. The time when investors are always happiest.
Investopedia defines “Santa Claus Rally” as a rise in the price of stocks that usually occurs around Christmas. There are many explanations for what happened at the Santa Claus Rally, including tax cuts, excitement around Wall Street, people investing their Christmas savings, and the fact that the Most people don’t agree with this week. Many consider it a Santa Claus rally by people buying stocks in anticipation of a rise in stock prices in January, otherwise known as January.
The “Good January” is defined as the increase in stock prices in January. This competition is mainly due to the increase in purchases, which follows the drop in prices that usually occurs in December when investors, looking to create tax losses for offset capital gains, resulting in a sell-off.
Whether this phenomenon is true or false, like today’s Saint Nick himself, there is no denying that this period is usually a good time for investors. In fact, the S&P 500 was positive 76% of the time for the period from the Monday before Black Friday to the end of the year.
Now, many people believe that economic competition is only the work of the Federal Reserve to increase the economy through stimulus and Quantitative Development. It’s hard to argue with this fact. Just look at every drop in the stock market; it’s usually from something that causes fear, like the news that the Fed will get rid of the punch bowl. On the other hand we see competition when we get bad news on the economy, which leads to happiness because the Fed will keep printing money.
I disagree that when the Fed, under Ben Bernanke or Janet Yellen, starts to taper the stimulus, stocks will fall. It’s like I’ve been saying here for months, as well as when I stood alone on my last CNBC appearance, I don’t think there will be a cut back any time soon. The economy will improve but there is no way it can stand on its own.
The sad fact is that the citizens of our country and the entire developed world will not support financial support for at least 5-8 more years. As I explain in Facing Goliath – How to Succeed in a Distressed Market, a business needs more spenders than savers to grow. We know that people spend the most money in their lives from their early 30’s to their late 40’s, peaking at 48 years old. Unfortunately, our population is well past their spending limits over the years, and the next generation of big spenders will be the opposite, the echo-boomers (the children of the baby-boomers) will not reach their spending limit until 2022.
Ben Bernanke must have seen this event (yes I will admit that maybe I’m not the only one), which is why he came out in front of this and started the promotion carry, and why they don’t go all the time. soon.
However there are at least two developments that have taken place, which have received little media attention, which make me happy: First that the American oil and gas boom began to build “on -shoring”. That’s when the factories came back to the US to produce. Just last week, Foxconn, the electronics manufacturer in Taipei that produces Apple’s iPhone, announced that it plans to invest $40 million to build robots in Pennsylvania. American companies usually go to Asia to do their production, but this time it’s the other way around, and it just shows that there’s a new trend. Company President Terry Gou says the company wants to be a part of “innovation” in America. Hmmm, or should I say wow?
The second development is the reform recently announced by the Chinese government. Although it has received little fanfare here in America, many experts have compared this to the 1978 revolution, when the “Gang of Four” was overthrown, and Deng Xiaoping was called the first . From that time until now, China has seen the success of today, Western trade, and Western trade. China’s per capita income has risen, from $100 to $6,000 today, and the new freedoms can bring China’s standard of living to American levels.
Of course, these are long reasons to be happy. In the short term, investors should follow one of the good words of Wall Street: Do not fight the Fed. The Fed keeping the money easy with low interest rates shows how hard they are trying to stimulate the economy. Another unspoken reason is that they fear deflation, which means they won’t stop until they create inflation. We are many years away before the Fed starts raising rates because of a very strong economy. Generally, investors shrug off the first few price hikes. It is not until the Federal Reserve Board hikes interest rates at least 3 times before stocks react. This is called the “3 jumps and a stumble” rule. If you guessed it; the ‘stumble’ refers to the store.
If you are retired or planning to retire, now is not the time to take too many risks. Leave that to people in their 20’s and 30’s. Although I think stocks are poised to go higher, we are overdue for a correction or a good old fashioned trade. They are just a part of life. Most bull markets last 48 – 56 months and we are in our 65th month, so take care and plan your exit strategy. The cost of making mistakes is simply enormous.
You have to be very careful here to invest properly so you get the best results, but with the least risk. If you are in the retirement zone, you cannot afford the risk because there is not enough time to recover. I encourage you to take a look at the Springer investment method, which is designed to manage risk and return, in any market.
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